Science in silence

Intellectual and cultural benefits from extended periods of self-isolation have a long history. The ongoing decline in academic freedom, however, distinguishes the coronavirus disease from previous crises. Despite the unprecedented political and economic challenges, as well as the devastating societal disruptions caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic, this study focusses on the fresh opportunities the current coronavirus restrictions offer to question extant academic models and paradigms, in the spirit of creating a more equitable and sustainable research system in the future.</jats:p

Three centuries of Slovakian drought dynamics

Tree-ring data from Slovakia are used to reconstruct decadal-scale fluctuations of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) over 1744-2006. The ring width chronology correlates at 0.58 (annual) and 0.88 (decadal) with regional-scale (48-50°N and 18-20°E) summer (June-August) scPDSI variations (1901-2002). Driest and wettest years common to the tree-ring and target data are 1947, 1948, 1964, and 1916, 1927, 1938, 1941, respectively. The model indicates decadal-scale drought ~1780-1810, 1850-1870, 1940-1960, and during the late twentieth century. The wettest period occurred ~1745-1775. Instrumental measurements and documentary evidence allow the reconstructed drought extremes to be verified and also provide additional insights on associated synoptic drivers and socioeconomic impacts. Comparison of anomalous dry conditions with European-scale fields of 500hPa geopotential height retains positive pressure anomalies centered over Central Europe leading to atmospheric stability, subsidence and dry conditions. Negative mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies over Western Europe are connected with anomalous wet conditions over Slovakia. Nine existing, annually resolved hydro-climatic reconstructions from Central Europe, which were herein considered for comparison with the Slovakian findings, reveal significant high- to low-frequency coherency among the majority of records. Differences between the Slovakian and the other reconstructions are most evident at the end of the nineteenth centur

High-resolution temperature variability reconstructed from black pine tree ring densities in Southern Spain

The presence of an ancient, high-elevation pine forest in the Natural Park of Sierras de Cazorla in southern Spain, including some trees reaching &gt;700 years, stimulated efforts to develop high-resolution temperature reconstructions in an otherwise drought-dominated region. Here, we present a reconstruction of spring and fall temperature variability derived from black pine tree ring maximum densities reaching back to 1350 Coefficient of Efficiency (CE). The reconstruction is accompanied by large uncertainties resulting from low interseries correlations among the single trees and a limited number of reliable instrumental stations in the study region. The reconstructed temperature history reveals warm conditions during the early 16th and 19th centuries that were of similar magnitude to the warm temperatures recorded since the late 20th century. A sharp transition from cold conditions in the late 18th century (t1781–1810 = −1.15 °C ± 0.64 °C) to warm conditions in the early 19th century (t1818–1847 = −0.06 °C ± 0.49 °C) is centered around the 1815 Tambora eruption (t1816 = −2.1 °C ± 0.55 °C). The new reconstruction from southern Spain correlates significantly with high-resolution temperature histories from the Pyrenees located ~600 km north of the Cazorla Natural Park, an association that is temporally stable over the past 650 years (r1350–2005 &gt; 0.3, p &lt; 0.0001) and particularly strong in the high-frequency domain (rHF &gt; 0.4). Yet, only a few of the reconstructed cold extremes (1453, 1601, 1816) coincide with large volcanic eruptions, suggesting that the severe cooling events in southern Spain are controlled by internal dynamics rather than external (volcanic) forcing.</jats:p

Millennium-long summer temperature variations in the European Alps as reconstructed from tree rings

This paper presents a reconstruction of the summer temperatures over the Greater Alpine Region (44.05A degrees-47.41A degrees N, 6.43A degrees-13A degrees E) during the last millennium based on a network of 38 multi-centennial larch and stone pine chronologies. Tree ring series are standardized using an Adaptative Regional Growth Curve, which attempts to remove the age effect from the low frequency variations in the series. The proxies are calibrated using the June to August mean temperatures from the HISTALP high-elevation temperature time series spanning the 1818-2003. The method combines an analogue technique, which is able to extend the too short tree-ring series, an artificial neural network technique for an optimal non-linear calibration including a bootstrap technique for calculating error assessment on the reconstruction. About 50% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. Low-elevation instrumental data back to 1760 compared to their instrumental target data reveal divergence between (warmer) early instrumental measurements and (colder) proxy estimates. The proxy record indicates cool conditions, from the mid-11th century to the mid-12th century, related to the Oort solar minimum followed by a short Medieval Warm Period (1200-1420). The Little Ice Age (1420-1830) appears particularly cold between 1420 and 1820 with summers that are 0.8 A degrees C cooler than the 1901-2000 period. The new record suggests that the persistency of the late 20th century warming trend is unprecedented. It also reveals significant similarities with other alpine reconstructions

Long-term ecological consequences of forest fires in the continuous permafrost zone of Siberia

Abstract Wildfires are an important factor in controlling forest ecosystem dynamics across the circumpolar boreal zone. An improved understanding of their direct and indirect, short- to long-term impacts on vegetation cover and permafrost–vegetation coupling is particularly important to predict changes in carbon, nutrient and water cycles under projected climate warming. Here, we apply dendrochronological techniques on a multi-parameter dataset to reconstruct the effect of wildfires on tree growth and seasonal permafrost thaw depth in Central Siberia. Based on annually-resolved and absolutely dated information from 19 Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.) trees and active soil layer thickness measurements, we find substantial stand-level die-off, as well as the removal of ground vegetation and the organic layer following a major wildfire in 1896. Reduced stem growth coincides with increased δ 13C in the cellulose of the surviving trees during the first decade after the wildfire, when stomatal conductance was reduced. The next six to seven decades are characterized by increased permafrost active soil layer thickness. During this period of post-wildfire ecosystem recovery, enhanced tree growth together with positive δ 13C and negative δ 18O trends are indicative of higher rates of photosynthesis and improved water supply. Afterwards, a thinner active soil layer leads to reduced growth because tree physiological processes become limited by summer temperature and water availability. Revealing long-term effects of forest fires on active soil layer thickness, ground vegetation composition and tree growth, this study demonstrates the importance of complex vegetation–permafrost interactions that modify the trajectory of post-fire forest recovery across much of the circumpolar boreal zone. To further quantify the influence of boreal wildfires on large-scale carbon cycle dynamics, future work should consider a wide range of tree species from different habitats in the high-northern latitudes.</jats:p

Setting the tree-ring record straight

Funder: Potsdam-Institut f├╝r Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) e.V. (3500)AbstractTree-ring chronologies are the main source for annually resolved and absolutely dated temperature reconstructions of the last millennia and thus for studying the intriguing problem of climate impacts. Here we focus on central Europe and compare the tree-ring based temperature reconstruction with reconstructions from harvest dates, long meteorological measurements, and historical model data. We find that all data are long-term persistent, but in the tree-ring based reconstruction the strength of the persistence quantified by the Hurst exponent is remarkably larger ($$h\cong 1.02$$ h ≅ 1.02 ) than in the other data ($$h=$$ h = 0.52–0.69), indicating an unrealistic exaggeration of the historical temperature variations.We show how to correct the tree-ring based reconstruction by a mathematical transformation that adjusts the persistence and leads to reduced amplitudes of the warm and cold periods. The new transformed record agrees well with both the observational data and the harvest dates-based reconstructions and allows more realistic studies of climate impacts. It confirms that the present warming is unprecedented.</jats:p

Uniform growth trends among central Asian low and high elevation juniper tree sites. Trees

Abstract We present an analysis of 28 juniper tree-ring sites sampled over the last decades by several research teams in the Tien Shan and Karakorum mountains of western central Asia. Ring-width chronologies were developed on a site-by-site basis, using a detrending technique designed to retain low-frequency climate variations. Site chronologies were grouped according to their distance from the upper timberline in the Tien Shan ( ∼ 3,400 m a.s.l.) and Karakorum ( ∼ 4,000 m), and low-and high-elevation composite chronologies combining data from both mountain systems developed. Comparison of these elevational subsets revealed significant coherence (r = 0.72) over the 1438-1995 common period, which is inconsistent with the concept of differing environmental signals captured in tree-ring data along elevational gradients. It is hypothesized that the uniform growth behavior in central Asian juniper trees has been forced by solar radiation variations controlled via cloud cover changes, but verification of this assumption requires further fieldwork. The high-elevation composite chronology was further compared with existing temperature reconstructions from the Karakorum and Tien Shan, and long-term trend differences discussed. We concluded that the extent of warmth during medieval times cannot be precisely estimated based on ring-width data currently available. Communicated by M. Adam

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years